What archaeology says
Archaeologists and volcanologists agree on the mechanism: Baiae was not destroyed by a single catastrophe but lowered gradually by bradyseism, the slow vertical movement of the Campi Flegrei caldera as magma and hydrothermal fluids shift beneath it. The coastline subsided progressively through late antiquity and the early medieval period, drowning the maritime quarter of the town, the imperial palace complex and the nearby military harbour of Portus Julius.
Systematic underwater investigation began after fishermen and pilots reported walls beneath the bay; excavations from the 1940s onward, and especially since the marine protected area was established in 2002, have mapped villas, thermal complexes, fish ponds and streets. The showpiece is the nymphaeum of Punta Epitaffio, a banqueting grotto of the emperor Claudius whose statue group — including Ulysses offering wine to the Cyclops — was recovered and is now displayed in the Castello Aragonese museum at Baia.
For researchers, Baiae is also a living laboratory: the same ground that sank is now rising again, and monitoring of the caldera's uplift is a matter of civil protection for the modern towns around Pozzuoli. The submerged park is studied as a test case for conserving ancient remains in situ under the sea.
- Extensive Roman literary record: Cicero, Seneca, Horace and others describe Baiae as the resort of the elite, matching the luxury architecture found underwater
- Bradyseism at Campi Flegrei is directly measurable today, with the ground at Pozzuoli rising by metres in the 1970s-80s and again in the 2020s unrest
- Borings by marine molluscs on the columns of the nearby 'Temple of Serapis' macellum at Pozzuoli record past episodes of submergence and uplift
- Underwater excavation of the Punta Epitaffio nymphaeum recovered a Claudian statue programme, securely dating the complex to the mid 1st century AD
- Mapped remains — Villa dei Pisoni, the Villa a Protiro, mosaics, lead water pipes stamped with owners' names — lie in shallow water consistent with 4-6 m of subsidence
- The Parco Sommerso di Baia, established in 2002, protects and continues to document the site through ongoing survey and conservation
